Tuesday, July 17

Cards Congress can play to make Rahul Gandhi PM in 2019

Mahagathwandhan Story 2019

Role of Rahul Gandhi in Grand Alliance of Opposition



Image result for mahagathbandhan opposition parties

It seems that Mahagathwandan is the only way out for opposition in 2019 elections. Can a Grand alliance be formed by the opposition in 2019 is still a question mark. 

The way ahead for opposition is not easy and there are many hurdles in forming the Grand alliance, the major being who will lead the alliance. The seat sharing is another big trouble for the alliance in 2019. How many seats will be shared between parties in each state? How will the leaders convince their grass root workers who were campaigning against each other in election after election in the past?

What will happen to the aspiring candidate of BSP in the seat which will be given to SP and vice versa?

TMC and NC has no presence in UP. Will they also get some share of seats in UP. Similarly SP BSP and others have no presence in Bengal. How many seats Didi will share with them?

We can anticipate lot of problems ahead for the opposition in the coming months unlike BJP which is confident of winning enough seats to form the government in 2019. Although they are aware that it might put an end to their winning spree in 2019

Assume that all the parties form a Mahagathwandan amicably before 2019 and are able to convince the public about their agenda and garner enough votes to defeat BJP. 

See below a hypothetical chart which shows how many seats each party will win in case of Mahagathwandhan,(the grand alliance of opposition parties) succeeds to stop Modi in 2019

Assuming that the opposition will get this kind of mandate, then Rahul's score is better than his partners

Rahul is at the top scoring 72 seats, while Mamata is second at 36 followed by Mayawati 32 and Akhilesh 30

BJPs total tally is 241 and need at least 31 more seats to form a government again. If say Shiv Sena with 9 seats and few other small parties support BJP then we can see Modi again.

However if the United Opposition with support of others want to form a government then who will be the PM candidate?

Are we going to see a Dalit PM in 2019?

Scenario 1-  Simple way to choose will be the party having highest number of seats and that is Congress in this case. Rahul will be the first choice for PM. But this will only happen when the opposition has agreed and declared before forming the grand alliance  that party with maximum seats will get the PM seat

Scenario 2 - The Alliance was formed without announcing PM candidate. In that case we can see some internal fights between the parties to make their leader PM. SP, BSP, TMC, Congress will all pitch in for their respective leaders. 

Scenario 3- Since Congress do not want to leave the power go from hands may propose a Muslim Candidate like Hamid Ansari as a PM candidate. It would be difficult for the alliance to oppose such a move as most of the parties are known to appease Muslim vote bank. The Sonia Rahul combine will be indirectly ruling the nation

Scenario 3 - Amidst confusion and difference of opinions between the parties for PM candidate, Sharad Pawar may propose Mayawati as the first Dalit Prime Minister of India, another move that may be acceptable to the alliance.

Scenario 4 -Seeing Amit Shah and BJP being active talking with some Independent MPs and fearing that BJP may try to form the government, Congress may propose a name from Tamil Nadu and the other parties sensing that Amit Shah's Blitzkrieg may immediately agree to their choice

All in all 2019 will be an interesting elections and it will not be a cake walk for BJP if the Grand Alliance is successfully formed

State
Seats
Mayawati
Akhilesh
Rahul
Modi
Mamata
KCR
TDP
AIADMK
CPI/M
DMK
Others
ANDHRA PRADESH/TELANG
42
1
2
3
10
1
17
7

1


ARUNACHAL PRADESH
2


1
1







ASSAM
14


2
10
2






BIHAR
40
1
1
1
22
1





14
JHARKHAND
14
1

2
9




2


GOA
2


1
1







GUJARAT
26
1
1
5
19







HARYANA
10
1
1
3
5







HIMACHAL PRADESH
4


1
3







JAMMU & KASHMIR
6


1
2






3
KARNATAKA
28
1
1
6
15






5
KERALA
20


1
5




14


MADHYA PRADESH
29
1
1
6
17






4
CHHATTISGARH
11


2
7




2


MAHARASHTRA
48

1
8
22






17
MANIPUR
2


1
1







MEGHALAYA
2


1
1







MIZORAM
1



1







NAGALAND
1



1







ORISSA
21


4
10




2

5
PUNJAB
13


7
6







RAJASTHAN
25


7
18







SIKKIM
1



1







TAMIL NADU
39


2
5



13
1
15
3
TRIPURA
2



2







UTTAR PRADESH
80
24
22
4
30







UTTARAKHAND
5
1

1
3







WEST BENGAL
42


1
4
32



5


ANDAMAN & NICOBAR ISLANDS
1



1







CHANDIGARH
1



1







DADRA & NAGAR HAVELI
1



1







DAMAN & DIU
1



1







DELHI
7


1
4






2
LAKSHADWEEP
1



1







PONDICHERRY
1



1







Total
543
32
30
72
241
36
17
7
13
27
15
53


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