Mahagathwandhan Story
2019
Role of Rahul Gandhi in
Grand Alliance of Opposition
It seems that
Mahagathwandan is the only way out for opposition in 2019 elections. Can a
Grand alliance be formed by the opposition in 2019 is still a question
mark.
The way ahead for
opposition is not easy and there are many hurdles in forming the Grand
alliance, the major being who will lead the alliance. The seat sharing is
another big trouble for the alliance in 2019. How many seats will be shared
between parties in each state? How will the leaders convince their grass root
workers who were campaigning against each other in election after election in
the past?
What will happen to the
aspiring candidate of BSP in the seat which will be given to SP and vice versa?
TMC and NC has no
presence in UP. Will they also get some share of seats in UP. Similarly SP BSP
and others have no presence in Bengal. How many seats Didi will share with
them?
We can anticipate lot of
problems ahead for the opposition in the coming months unlike BJP which is
confident of winning enough seats to form the government in 2019. Although they
are aware that it might put an end to their winning spree in 2019
Assume that all the
parties form a Mahagathwandan amicably before 2019 and are able to convince the
public about their agenda and garner enough votes to defeat BJP.
See below a hypothetical
chart which shows how many seats each party will win in case of
Mahagathwandhan,(the grand alliance of opposition parties) succeeds to stop
Modi in 2019
Assuming that the
opposition will get this kind of mandate, then Rahul's score is better than his
partners
Rahul is at the top
scoring 72 seats, while Mamata is second at 36 followed by Mayawati 32 and
Akhilesh 30
BJPs total tally is 241
and need at least 31 more seats to form a government again. If say Shiv Sena
with 9 seats and few other small parties support BJP then we can see Modi
again.
However if the United
Opposition with support of others want to form a government then who will be
the PM candidate?
Are we going to see a
Dalit PM in 2019?
Scenario 1- Simple
way to choose will be the party having highest number of seats and that is
Congress in this case. Rahul will be the first choice for PM. But this will
only happen when the opposition has agreed and declared before forming the
grand alliance that party with maximum seats will get the PM seat
Scenario 2 - The
Alliance was formed without announcing PM candidate. In that case we can see
some internal fights between the parties to make their leader PM. SP, BSP, TMC,
Congress will all pitch in for their respective leaders.
Scenario 3- Since
Congress do not want to leave the power go from hands may propose a Muslim
Candidate like Hamid Ansari as a PM candidate. It would be difficult for the
alliance to oppose such a move as most of the parties are known to appease
Muslim vote bank. The Sonia Rahul combine will be indirectly ruling the nation
Scenario 3 - Amidst
confusion and difference of opinions between the parties for PM candidate,
Sharad Pawar may propose Mayawati as the first Dalit Prime Minister of India,
another move that may be acceptable to the alliance.
Scenario 4 -Seeing Amit
Shah and BJP being active talking with some Independent MPs and fearing that
BJP may try to form the government, Congress may propose a name from Tamil Nadu
and the other parties sensing that Amit Shah's Blitzkrieg may immediately agree
to their choice
All in all 2019 will be
an interesting elections and it will not be a cake walk for BJP if the Grand
Alliance is successfully formed
State
|
Seats
|
Mayawati
|
Akhilesh
|
Rahul
|
Modi
|
Mamata
|
KCR
|
TDP
|
AIADMK
|
CPI/M
|
DMK
|
Others
|
ANDHRA PRADESH/TELANG
|
42
|
1
|
2
|
3
|
10
|
1
|
17
|
7
|
1
|
|||
ARUNACHAL PRADESH
|
2
|
1
|
1
|
|||||||||
ASSAM
|
14
|
2
|
10
|
2
|
||||||||
BIHAR
|
40
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
22
|
1
|
14
|
|||||
JHARKHAND
|
14
|
1
|
2
|
9
|
2
|
|||||||
GOA
|
2
|
1
|
1
|
|||||||||
GUJARAT
|
26
|
1
|
1
|
5
|
19
|
|||||||
HARYANA
|
10
|
1
|
1
|
3
|
5
|
|||||||
HIMACHAL PRADESH
|
4
|
1
|
3
|
|||||||||
JAMMU & KASHMIR
|
6
|
1
|
2
|
3
|
||||||||
KARNATAKA
|
28
|
1
|
1
|
6
|
15
|
5
|
||||||
KERALA
|
20
|
1
|
5
|
14
|
||||||||
MADHYA PRADESH
|
29
|
1
|
1
|
6
|
17
|
4
|
||||||
CHHATTISGARH
|
11
|
2
|
7
|
2
|
||||||||
MAHARASHTRA
|
48
|
1
|
8
|
22
|
17
|
|||||||
MANIPUR
|
2
|
1
|
1
|
|||||||||
MEGHALAYA
|
2
|
1
|
1
|
|||||||||
MIZORAM
|
1
|
1
|
||||||||||
NAGALAND
|
1
|
1
|
||||||||||
ORISSA
|
21
|
4
|
10
|
2
|
5
|
|||||||
PUNJAB
|
13
|
7
|
6
|
|||||||||
RAJASTHAN
|
25
|
7
|
18
|
|||||||||
SIKKIM
|
1
|
1
|
||||||||||
TAMIL NADU
|
39
|
2
|
5
|
13
|
1
|
15
|
3
|
|||||
TRIPURA
|
2
|
2
|
||||||||||
UTTAR PRADESH
|
80
|
24
|
22
|
4
|
30
|
|||||||
UTTARAKHAND
|
5
|
1
|
1
|
3
|
||||||||
WEST BENGAL
|
42
|
1
|
4
|
32
|
5
|
|||||||
ANDAMAN & NICOBAR
ISLANDS
|
1
|
1
|
||||||||||
CHANDIGARH
|
1
|
1
|
||||||||||
DADRA & NAGAR
HAVELI
|
1
|
1
|
||||||||||
DAMAN & DIU
|
1
|
1
|
||||||||||
DELHI
|
7
|
1
|
4
|
2
|
||||||||
LAKSHADWEEP
|
1
|
1
|
||||||||||
PONDICHERRY
|
1
|
1
|
||||||||||
Total
|
543
|
32
|
30
|
72
|
241
|
36
|
17
|
7
|
13
|
27
|
15
|
53
|
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